On 20th march 2020 members of the Steem-Community will execute their plans to fork the ecosystem and with it the Steemit stake of Justin Sun. Steemit Inc. (the company behind steemit.com) was recently bought by Tron´s Justin Sun. After having a dispute about the on chain governance, the community decided to fork a new platform called Hive. The STEEM tokens on the Steem chain will be snapshot and an airdrop of jive token will give you the same amount of funds on the new chain. However, forks are not simply a 50:50 division of value:
I have calculated the fair value of the STEEM token before and I do it again and again and every crash to the bottom proves the model right. However this is not a price prediction and no financial advise!
The Metcalfe-value (not the price but the combined utility) of a communication network is v = n².
Steem shows a stable number of daily active users of around 10k active unique accounts. Lets take a bot- and project-account margin of 25-50% –> so we assume 5-7.5k unique active human users.
Metcalfes Law models the basic value of a communication network: So the value of the network users² = 25,000,000 - 56,250,000 $ which gives us a token value of ~7 – 15 cents per STEEM or a Median of ~11 Cents $ of actual fair value.
E voila: Markets (in the absence hype) are exactly pricing in the network value
V= Users² means, that doubling the user-base brings a 4x in value…unfortunately a 50:50 split accordingly leaves both Networks A) and B) with only >>1/4<< of the original value (see Vitalik Buterin on Network Splits).
[in Model 2.) the user preferences (p,q) are a multiplicative factor. Any good fork which gives the user what he/she wants is a chance. When it is the same shit or worse, than it will be a huge loss]
When the fork has no user advantage over A), then forks are always a net loss for both sides. BUT when the fork creates a better environment and more freedom, than it will be a long term win …when the fork is not what users want, they ALL lose! (3 cents per HIVE and 3 cents per STEEM in the long term equilibrium. Yes, exchanges can spoof prices short term and trick you (and they probably will) but it is about the market-equilibria). Good luck to us all. Be careful with your investments.
The problem with the ninja stake is that there is centralization anyways. With or without Steemit Inc.
However this will play out, the responsible persons should take the users seriously. Users make a platform valuable.
So far, large amounts of token have been moved to Binance and the STEEM price has pumped over 150% within a few hours.
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